December 3, 2022

DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Week 11 was a critical one for a handful of teams with serious NFL playoff aspirations.

Only 14 teams can make the NFL playoffs, but many more will be in the race through Week 18.

While teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles should feel great about their chances of getting in, others will need to see how the next seven weeks of the regular season do shake out. Although teams like the Houston Texans have clearly moved on to the 2023 NFL Draft, much of the league is left in the running to procure one of those 14 available postseason berths.

Here are the latest playoff projections by FiveThirtyEight heading into Monday Night Football.

NFL playoff projections: Biggest winners and losers through Week 11

Winner: Dallas Cowboys (99 percent chance to make playoffs)

With the Dallas Cowboys crushing the Minnesota Vikings on the road, they now have the best odds of any team in the NFC to win the Super Bowl at 26 percent. They trail only the Kansas City Chiefs in that regard (23 percent). Although they only have a 31 percent chance of winning the NFC East, the Cowboys are pretty much a lock at this juncture to make the NFC playoffs at 99 percent.

Loser: Denver Broncos (0.6 percent chance to make playoffs)

It has been a year from hell for the Denver Broncos. With the hopes of making the postseason for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2015, Denver now has a 0.6 percent chance of getting into the AFC playoffs. While losing at home to the Las Vegas Raiders was a brutal blow, Denver has to face the reality it might have longest active postseason drought after this season.

Winner: Tennessee Titans (98 percent chance to make playoffs)

The Tennessee Titans are a strong and powerful force in the AFC South. After beating the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night, Tennessee now has a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 97 percent chance of winning its division. While a first-round bye or a Lombardi Trophy are slim at around 7 percent apiece, it all starts with getting a home playoff game in January anyway.

Loser: New York Giants (51 percent chance to make playoffs)

With the New York Giants getting pushed around by the Detroit Lions at home, the G-Men’s playoff chances have dropped to 51 percent in the NFC. They now have a 2 percent chance of winning the NFC East, which has become one of the most competitive divisions in football. This might only be a third-place team anyway, but that may not be enough to make the playoffs.

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